IATA: Air Cargo Growth Stalls in June Amid Global Trade Uncertainty

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported subdued growth in the air cargo sector for June 2025, with global demand increasing by just 0.8% year-on-year. The minimal rise reflects ongoing market instability, largely driven by trade policy shifts and new tariff measures.

According to IATA, cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs)—the standard metric for air cargo demand—saw a marginal year-on-year increase as global freight flows continued to feel the impact of recent U.S.-imposed tariffs. These disruptions have weakened world trade and unsettled established shipping patterns.

Shippers in key industries such as technology, electronics, fashion, and consumer goods frontloaded shipments earlier in the year in anticipation of tariff hikes. As a result, June volumes were lower, and some goods are now facing shipment delays, with production shifting to alternative countries offering more favorable export conditions.

While May recorded stronger 2.2% year-on-year growth despite initial tariff implementations, June marked a slowdown. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 1.7% year-on-year, but dropped by 2.2 percentage points compared to May—a sign, IATA noted, of airlines adjusting to softer demand.

Cargo Load Factor (CLF), an indicator of how efficiently capacity is being used, also fell by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. Meanwhile, cargo yields weakened further, with average freight rates falling 2.5% compared to June 2024, although they saw a slight 0.9% month-on-month increase.

“The evolving tariff landscape is making it increasingly difficult for businesses to plan effectively,” IATA warned. “Supply chain unpredictability is raising the risk of a deeper cargo slowdown.”

Regional Performance: Mixed Results

• Asia-Pacific airlines outperformed other regions, registering a 9.0% increase in demand and a 7.8% rise in capacity.

• North American carriers experienced the steepest decline, with an 8.3% drop in demand and a 5.1% decrease in capacity.

• European airlines posted flat growth at 0.8%, while capacity expanded by 2.6%.

• Middle Eastern carriers saw demand fall 3.2% despite a 1.5% capacity boost.

• Latin American airlines recorded 3.5% growth, with capacity down 0.4%.

• African carriers reported a 3.9% increase in demand alongside a 6.2% rise in capacity.

According to IATA, while major trade lanes within Europe and the Middle East-Asia corridor showed volume growth, routes within Asia and those involving North America experienced sharp declines.

Economic Indicators and Outlook

Global manufacturing showed signs of recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbing to 51.2 in June. However, export orders remained under pressure, with the export PMI at 49.3—still in contraction territory. World industrial production grew 3.2% year-on-year, and global goods trade expanded 3.5%.

Jet fuel prices were 12% lower than in June 2024, continuing a year-on-year decline, though they rose 8.6% from May levels.

Call for Policy Stability

IATA Director General Willie Walsh stressed the importance of predictable trade policies for industry stability. “Emerging clarity on U.S. tariffs gives businesses greater confidence, but the reality is these 'deals' have resulted in much higher costs for U.S. imports,” he said. “Governments should prioritize making trade more efficient and secure—especially through digitalization.”